Flying taxis are (finally) almost here
By ~2030, safer, quieter eVTOLs will replace helicopters in cities near you...
We’re inching closer to the commercial launch of a new kind of transportation vehicle and industry — electric vertical take-off-and-landing aircraft, or eVTOLs.
By 2030 or so, rich travelers should be able to hop from downtown to airports in traffic-clogged cities in quiet, safe, electric air taxis. By 2040, eVTOLs are expected to become a major new industry.
These aircraft will initially serve a similar purpose as today’s gas-powered helicopters — with several advantages:
They’ll be cheaper to operate and maintain
They’ll be safer and more sustainable (low emissions)
They’ll be quieter, which will allow them to fly in areas in which helicopters are banned
After a SPAC-fueled frenzy and crash, the industry has consolidated to four public companies — Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, EHang (China), and Vertical Aerospace (UK).
Joby, Archer, and Vertical Aerospace are developing aircraft and/or services designed to carry 4 passengers on short hops (50-100 miles) — between cities and airports, suburbs, or other close cities.
These are “tilt-rotor” aircraft, which lift off with rotors, like a helicopter or drone, and then transition to winged flight, like an airplane.
The aircraft will initially have pilots, though most of the flying is automated. Pilots help because:
Passengers will be less freaked-out
Pilots are “the ultimate backup” and can help navigate complex airspace
Regulatory certification will be easier
Eventually, the industry will likely shift to automated flying, which will create space for more passengers and/or cargo.
Beyond short-hop passenger travel, the aircraft will be useful for cargo and military missions. Hybrid drives will support much longer flights.
The first commercial launches are now expected in 2026 or 2027, after years of delays. EHang is already operating eVTOLs in China, but with a smaller, pilotless, sightseeing aircraft that is more like a drone.
If these things are so exciting and promising, what’s taking so long?
Regulatory certification. The US and Europe have extremely high safety standards for new aircraft, with many test phases. The companies are working through them.
On my “Solutions” podcast this week, I talked with the team from Vertical Aerospace: Stuart Simpson, CEO, and Jason Mudrick, controlling shareholder. We discussed the opportunity, industry, and company.
Vertical Aerospace has a smaller market capitalization and less cash than Joby and Archer. But Vertical is building its aircraft to meet Earth’s highest aviation safety standard — a one-in-a-billion failure rate. The other companies, Jason says, are initially aiming for lower safety hurdles, which is why they’re planning to launch their first services in the Middle East.
Jason went so far as to predict that the aircraft that Joby and Archer are currently developing will not meet the world’s most stringent certification standards.
Jason also says Vertical’s aircraft cabin will be more comfortable and “business-class-like” than Joby and Archer’s — and will therefore be better suited to the First Class and Business Class passengers who are expected to be the early adopters.
(If folks at Joby or Archer have different views — email me!)
For a full eVTOL market overview and analysis by my research assistant Claude, please see here or download:
(Note: Claude is using an outdated cash figure for Vertical Aerospace. The company now has more than $100 million of cash on hand and says it is fully funded for this year.)
Please watch our discussion here:
Or listen here:
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