AI gurus see 34% odds of Armageddon

That's the current wisdom of the AI crowd. Yikes!

“Dude, shouldn’t we at least talk about this?”

Hello! Yesterday, we examined a worrying report about the risky behavior and capabilities of a new AI model. Today, we check in on the probability that AI will destroy us. According to the experts, it’s an alarming 34%!

So, what’s your “P(doom)”?

That’s a question AI experts are asking themselves as we barrel toward a future in which AI will likely become much smarter and more capable than humans.

It means:

What do you think the probability is that superintelligent AI will cause a cataclysm that severely damages or destroys humanity?

Given the enthusiasm and speed with which we are rushing to develop ever-more-powerful AI systems, one might think the expert consensus of P(doom) would be vanishingly low — say, a fraction of a percent.

But it isn’t.

It’s 34%.

One chance in three.

That’s the current consensus of the experts aggregated in this Wikipedia article, at least.

Their estimates range from 0% chance to 99.9% chance of Armageddon.

Wait — who are these people? And what does this mean?…